CoreLogic® estimates insurable losses in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands at less than $1 billion; similar losses in Mexico
Hurricane Beryl continues to top Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones records. The storm grew in intensity after its initial landfall over Carriacou Island of Grenada, reaching Category 5 status with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph at its peak, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Hurricane Beryl is the earliest Category 5 storm to form in recorded history.
After its direct landfall over the Windward Islands, Hurricane Beryl advanced toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Starting Wednesday, July 3 at 2 p.m. local time (7 p.m. UTC) Hurricane Beryl passed over southeastern Jamaica, but early reports indicate that it spared Kingston from the worst of the winds.
On the morning of Friday, July 5, Hurricane Beryl officially made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula northeast of Tulum at 6:05 a.m. local time (11:05 a.m. UTC) as a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and minimum central pressure of 975 millibars (mb), according to the NHC.
CoreLogic® Estimates Hurricane Wind Losses in Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and Mexico
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ estimates that total insurable losses across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands will be between $400 million and $700 million. Estimated insurable losses in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula are also less than $1 billion.
The estimated losses include wind-only damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. Insurable losses account for damage to all modeled exposure types prior to the application of any insurance terms (such as deductibles or limits). It does not include losses to any regional insurance programs.
Hurricane Beryl passed just south of Jamaica. The most extreme winds in the eye wall of the storm did not appear to impact Kingston, where the population is the densest. A weather station at Kington’s Norman Manley International Airport recorded a maximum wind gust of 81 mph with lower sustained winds. The southern coast of Jamaica west of Kingston saw the strongest sustained winds as the storm continued west-northwest; however these areas are more sparsely populated.
“While it’s unfortunate that a part of Jamaica experienced the devastating winds of Hurricane Beryl, it is lucky the storm stayed just far enough south of Kingston and merely brushed against Jamaica, its strong winds avoiding the most populated areas,” said Jon Schneyer, CoreLogic’s director of catastrophe response. “A more northward shift could have caused a stronger storm surge and wind event in the more developed areas of Kingston, like what happened in 1988 with Hurricane Gilbert.”
The Cayman Islands remained outside of Hurricane Beryl’s strongest winds. A weather station at the Owen Robers International Airport on Grand Cayman Island recorded a wind gust of 54 mph with sustained winds less than that.
Initial information from the NHC indicate hurricane force winds on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. A weather station at Xcaret Park in Cancun recorded a maximum wind gust of 81 mph and sustained winds of 59 mph. Another separate weather station at Xel-Há Park between Playa Del Carmen and Tulum recorded a minimum central pressure of 980.9 mb.
Risk Quantification and Engineering® (RQE) model users can download proxy events from the CoreLogic North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Model and Mexico Hurricane Model on the Client Resource Center (CRC).
Another Day, Another New Record Set
Beryl continued to set new meteorological records, due in part to environmental conditions in and above the Atlantic Ocean conducive to tropical cyclones. Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have fueled Beryl’s persistent intensification.
“This is the sort of behavior we would expect to see in late August or early September during the peak of hurricane season” said CoreLogic’s Chief Scientist Dr. Howard Botts. “To see a major tropical cyclone east of the Caribbean in late June is almost unheard of. A Category 5 hurricane in early July has never been recorded,” continued Botts. “Is this a new normal? Possibly, and it shows that pre-season outlooks are likely correct, and this will be an incredibly active hurricane season.”
Hurricane Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. The previous record holder was Hurricane Emily, which strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on July 17, 2005. At 165 mph, Beryl also became the strongest hurricane ever observed in July (again topping Hurricane Emily).
Hurricanes are heat engines. They are fueled by heat in the oceans, both at the surface and at depth, to strengthen. When Hurricane Beryl strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane east of the Caribbean, the average North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature was 23.5 C (74.3 F), which on average usually does not occur until the end of July (Figure 1).
Future Hurricane Beryl Updates
Hurricane Beryl continues to weaken as it passes over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast indicates that Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm once it enters the western Caribbean Sea but intensify as it moves northwest toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.
Hurricane-force winds in excess of 74 mph are possible in coastal regions like Port Isabel and South Padre Island in southern Texas. If Hurricane Beryl follows a more northerly track, then the areas around Corpus Christi are at risk of hurricane winds as well. Storm surge and rainfall-induced flooding are possible across southern Texas.
CoreLogic Hazard HQ Command Central™ will continue to monitor Hurricane Beryl. Updates will be provided after the storm makes landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas as week as if additional data becomes available.
Please email [email protected] with questions about Hurricane Beryl or any CoreLogic event response notifications.