Data Through Q1 2022
Introduction
The CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Insights report, is published quarterly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes negative equity share and average equity gains. The report features an interactive view of the data using digital maps to examine CoreLogic homeowner equity analysis through the first quarter of 2022.
Negative equity, often referred to as being “underwater” or “upside down,” applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or both.
This data only includes properties with a mortgage. Non-mortgaged properties (that are owned outright) are not included.
Homeowner Equity Q1 2022
CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 62% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of over $3.8 trillion since the first quarter of 2021, a gain of 32.2% year over year.
*Homeownership mortgage source: 2020 American Community Survey.
Negative Equity Falls
In the first quarter of 2022, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased by 5.3% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to 1.1 million homes, or 2% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity fell by 23% from 1.4 million homes, or 2.6% of all mortgaged properties, in the first quarter of 2021.
Because home equity is affected by home price changes, borrowers with equity positions near (+/- 5%) the negative equity cutoff are most likely to move out of or into negative equity as prices change, respectively. Looking at the first quarter of 2022 book of mortgages, if home prices increase by 5%, 130,000 homes would regain equity; if home prices decline by 5%, 167,000 would fall underwater. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast TM projects home prices will increase 5.9% from March 2022 to March 2023.
Economic Impact
U.S. home prices continued their upward trajectory in the first quarter of 2022, with year-over-year growth averaging around 20%, allowing 62,000 owners to regain equity compared with the previous quarter. Homeowners in California, Hawaii and Washington led the U.S. for annual equity increases in the first quarter of this year, all gaining more than $100,000. Only 2% of homeowners with a mortgage remain underwater, a slight decline from the fourth quarter of 2021.
National Aggregate Value of Negative Equity: Q1 2022
The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $298 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2022. This is up quarter over quarter by approximately $9 billion, or 3.1%, from $289 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 and up year over year by approximately $26 billion, or 8.2%, from $275 billion in the first quarter of 2021..
Negative equity peaked at 26% of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis which began in the third quarter of 2009.
“Price growth is the key ingredient for the creation of home equity wealth. Home prices were up by 20% in March compared to one year earlier in CoreLogic’s national Home Price Index. This has led to the largest one-year gain in average home equity wealth for owners and is expected to spur a record amount of home-improvement spending this year.”
-Patrick Dodd
President and CEO, CoreLogic
National Homeowner Equity
In the first quarter of 2022, the average homeowner gained approximately $64,000 in equity during the past year.
California, Hawaii and Washington experienced the largest average equity gains at $141,00, $139,00 and $114,00 respectively. Iowa and North Dakota experienced the lowest average equity gains in the first quarter of 2022, at $17,300 and $19,000 respectively.
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10 Select Metros Change
CoreLogic provides homeowner equity data at the metropolitan level, in this graphic 10 of the largest cities, by housing stock are depicted.
Negative equity has seen a recent decrease across the country. San Francisco and Los Angeles, are the least challenged, with Negative Equity Share of all mortgages at 0.6%.
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Loan-to-Value Ratio (LTV)
The graph represents National Homeowner Equity Distribution across multiple LTV Segments.
Summary
CoreLogic began reporting homeowner equity data in the first quarter of 2010; at that time, the equity picture for homeowners was rather bleak in the United States. Since then, many homes have regained equity and the outstanding balance on the majority of mortgages in this country are now equal to or in a positive position when compared to their loan balance.
CoreLogic will continue to report on homeowner equity as it continues to adjust in communities and states across the country. To learn more about homeowner equity, visit the CoreLogic Insights page on www.corelogic.com.
Methodology
The amount of equity for each property is determined by comparing the estimated current value of the property against the mortgage debt outstanding (MDO). If the MDO is greater than the estimated value, then the property is determined to be in a negative equity position. If the estimated value is greater than the MDO, then the property is determined to be in a positive equity position. The data is first generated at the property level and aggregated to higher levels of geography. CoreLogic uses public record data as the source of the MDO, which includes more than 50 million first- and second-mortgage liens, and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization in order to capture the true level of MDO for each property. Only data for mortgaged residential properties that have a current estimated value are included. There are several states or jurisdictions where the public record, current value or mortgage data coverage is thin and have been excluded from the analysis. These instances account for fewer than 5% of the total U.S. population. The percentage of homeowners with a mortgage is from the 2019 American Community Survey. Data for the previous quarter was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at [email protected]. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visitwww.corelogic.com.
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Contact
For more information, please email Robin Wachner at [email protected]
