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Loan Performance Insights – July 2023
Introduction
The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report features an interactive view of our mortgage performance analysis through May 2023.
Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes transition rates between states of delinquency and separate breakouts for 120-plus day delinquencies.
Chart 1: Overall U.S. mortgage delinquency rate and year-over-year change, May 2023
“May’s overall mortgage delinquency rate matched the all-time low, and serious delinquencies followed suit. Furthermore, the rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020. A very strong job market continues to help borrowers pay their mortgages on time. The U.S. economy has added nearly 25 million jobs since April 2020 and about 4 million in the last year. As a result, the unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4% to 3.7% for the past 16 months. While the job market may slightly weaken over the next year, we project that mortgage performance will remain healthy.”
-Molly Boesel
Principal Economist for CoreLogic
Chart 2: Overall U.S. mortgage delinquency rate by select state and year-over-year change, May 2023
30 Days or More Delinquent – National
In May 2023, 2.6% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. This represents a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the overall delinquency rate compared with May 2022.
Chart 3: U.S. mortgage delinquency rates by time frame and year-over-year change, May 2023
Overall U.S. Mortgage Delinquency Rate Returns to Record Low in May
The U.S. overall mortgage delinquency rate again fell to a historic low in May, returning to the level recorded in March of this year. Foreclosures also remained near an all-time low, a rate that has been unchanged since the spring of 2022. Similar to trends observed in April, 14 states and nearly 170 metropolitan areas saw overall delinquencies increase year over year in May. And despite gradually declining home price gains over the past year, overall mortgage performance remains quite healthy, propped up by steady employment numbers.
Loan Performance – National
CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency to more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance.
The nation’s overall delinquency rate for May was 2.6%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.3% in May 2023, up from May 2022. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.4%, up from May 2022. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1% down from 1.3% in May 2022.
As of May 2023, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, unchanged from May 2022.
Transition Rates – National
CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.6%, unchanged from May 2022.
Chart 4: Share of delinquent mortgages transitioning from one stage to the next and year-over-year change, May 2023
Overall Delinquency – State
Overall delinquency is defined as 30 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.
In May 2023, 14 states posted year-over-year increases in overall delinquency rates, while 14 states were unchanged. The states and districts with the largest declines were Connecticut, Hawaii, New York and Washington, D.C.
Chart 5: Year-over-year change in overall mortgage delinquency rate by all states and districts, May 2023
Serious Delinquency – Metropolitan Areas
Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure.
There were three metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate increased.
There were 18 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate stayed the same.
There were 363 metropolitan areas where the Serious Delinquency Rate decreased.
Chart 6: Year-over-year change in serious mortgage delinquency rate by metro area, May 2023
Summary
Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To more comprehensively monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percent of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.
The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through May 2023. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
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