- U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.3% year over year in March, marking the 146th consecutive month of annual growth.
- Over the next 12 months, year-over-year home price gains are projected to range between 5.6% and 3.7%.
- Four of the top five states for annual appreciation in March are in the Northeast: New Jersey (12.2%), New Hampshire (10.6%), Connecticut (9.5%) and Rhode Island (9.2%).
IRVINE, Calif., May 7, 2024—CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for March 2024.
U.S. year-over-year home price gains remained above 5% in March for the fifth straight month and are projected to stay in that general range for most of the next 12 months. Northeastern states continued to post the nation’s largest gains, as more Americans migrate to bedroom communities of major cities and job hubs, as well as areas where household incomes are relatively higher and can sustain the elevated cost of homeownership. In addition, the inventory gains seen in states like Florida and Texas still lag in the Northeast, a trend that continues to exacerbate supply-and-demand fundamentals and further adds to home price pressure in that region. Consequently, markets with larger additions of homes for sale are now experiencing slowing home price appreciation.
A look at metro-level appreciation mirrors regional trends. Camden, New Jersey; Hartford, Connecticut; Syracuse, New York; Worcester, Massachusetts; Newark, New Jersey; Allentown, Pennsylvania and Rochester, New York are among the 10 fastest-appreciating U.S. housing markets so far in 2024 of the top 100 tracked metros. The top 10 also includes two California metros — Anaheim and San Jose — as well as Miami. At the same time, states where some Americans migrated to escape the brunt of the pandemic are now the furthest from their price peaks, led by Idaho, Washington and Utah.
“Home prices increased again this March beyond the typical seasonal uptick, despite mortgage rates reaching this year’s high and the affordability crunch continuing to keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Even with the long-anticipated break in for-sale inventory, the surging cost of homeownership, further fueled by rising insurance and tax expenses, is holding potential home sales back, as is evident in the slow rise in sales compared with last year. These price pressures reflect the overall supply-and-demand mismatch, as well as continued interest from households with larger budgets.”
Top Takeaways:
- U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.3% year over year in March 2024 compared with March 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.2% compared with February 2024.
- In March, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.7%) was 1.6 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (4.1%).
- CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 3.7% in March 2025.
- Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 highlighted metro areas in March, at 10.6%. San Diego saw the next-highest gain at 9.4%.
- Among states, New Jersey ranked first for annual appreciation in March (up by 12.2%), followed by South Dakota (up by 11.5%) and New Hampshire (up by 10.6%). No states recorded year-over-year home price losses.
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring April 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on June 4, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.
Source: CoreLogic
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Media Contact
Robin Wachner
CoreLogic
[email protected]